GREEN PAPER
on relations between the European Union and the ACP countries on the eve of the 21st century
Challenges and options for a new partnership
EUROPEAN COMMISSION,
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL VIII/1
Brussels, 20 November 1996
CHAPTER III. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGE IN ACP STATES: LIMITING FACTORS AND POTENTIAL
A.
The vicissitudes of economic policy in a deeply uncertain climate
B. Anticipating risks and
exploiting potential
C. Implications for the future
partnership
A. The vicissitudes of economic policy in a deeply uncertain climate
1. Socio-economic performance: uneven, but generally disappointing
In the last two years, the economic situation has improved appreciably in a growing number of ACP countries. This - as yet fragile - recovery may yet prove lasting, with knock-on effects on other countries, provided that they continue to improve their economic policies.
Over the long run, however, the performance of ACP countries as a whole has been disappointing and generally inferior to that of other developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the greatest problems at present. There is no shortage of indicators to support this assertion:
The overall picture masks a wide variety of conditions, however, and, as in other developing regions, the gap between African countries is widening.
In 1994 income per capita averaged USD 460 in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from USD 80 or 90 in Rwanda and Mozambique to USD 600 in Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, and around USD 3000 in Botswana and Mauritius.
Moreover, forecasts indicate a growing divergence between countries capable of implementing credible development policies and others locked in a vicious circle of violence and poverty. Countries covered by the Special Programme for Africa have achieved encouraging growth rates in recent years; GDP growth was around 1.5 points higher than in other sub-Saharan African countries on average from 1994 to 1996 (at median rates). Faster growth was matched by improved exports and increased investment, which is now running at almost 20% of GDP. The growth of private sector investment, in particular, illustrates the marked improvement in the economic climate of those countries. Another encouraging sign is that this improved performance has been more or less steady since structural adjustment programmes were introduced in 1987.
Most Caribbean countries, with the exception of Guyana, Suriname and Haiti (one of the world's poorest countries, with an average per capita income of USD 230), figure in the intermediate income bracket. Some, like Trinidad & Tobago, are better off (at around USD 3 740 per capita), while Barbados is among the region's elite. On the whole, however, GNP growth has been poor (even if one excludes Haiti), averaging 1% since 1990, and there is considerable poverty. Social indicators nonetheless show the Caribbean's health and education performance to be better than that of sub-Saharan Africa even where incomes are similar, reflecting advances achieved in recent decades by focusing on basic needs. In the last few years, however, that progress has been jeopardized by pressure to curb spending, particularly social expenditure, with a view to macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment.
Improved economic policies led to a rise in FDI from the early 1980s onwards in almost all but the poorest Caribbean countries; however, conditions are still far from conducive to private-sector diversification. The region is still heavily dependent on a few agricultural products (bananas, sugar and rice, mainly), and mineral products, for its exports. Since most Caribbean countries are islands, the climate and weather conditions also influence their economies, and considerably increase the per capita cost of social and economic investment and infrastructure.
The eight Pacific ACP States form a relatively heterogeneous group in both economic and cultural terms. The largest, Papua New Guinea (PNG), with some 5 million inhabitants, accounts for 70% of the group's total population, while the smallest, Tuvalu, has only 9 000. There is likewise a wide range in income, from USD 710 per capita in Kiribati to USD 2 130 in Fiji. As islands, with very small-scale economies, the eight countries are highly vulnerable to external influences: they are heavily dependent on trade and vulnerable to natural disasters such as cyclones.
Given the growing diversity of economic and social conditions found in the ACP States, it is tempting to subdivide them into different categories. On current performance, one can, in fact, distinguish between:
While this classification is useful for analytical purposes, its development policy implications are extremely limited in practice. The categories are subject to change; a good number of African countries have been and will be subject to abrupt changes of fortune. Countries which once performed quite well have experienced major reversals - Rwanda is a case in point, as is Nigeria, where political upheaval halted reforms. On the other hand, some countries which had been in recession for a long time are now advertisements for successful reform: Ghana and Uganda, for example.
Categorizing aid recipients is, therefore, no substitute for a thorough analysis of the problems that African countries are likely to face now and in the future.
2. Causes of low growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Several factors contribute to sub-Saharan Africa's poor per capita growth performance. Among the economic factors are its relatively low investment, rapid population growth, and failure to improve industrial/agricultural productivity, which in turn is partly explained by economic policy failures. Africa has unquestionably suffered poor economic management: large budget deficits, overvalued currencies, excessive market regulation, market distortions caused by protectionism and poor public sector management, all of which has tended to discourage the private sector. This is not to deny that external factors have played their part in its poor economic performance; ACP States are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity markets, international monetary conditions and debt servicing obligations.
If we take this analysis a step further and seek to pinpoint key factors that have either reduced the effectiveness of African development policies over a long period or suggest that, compared with other regions, African countries have opted for policies less conducive to growth, we find that they fall into two groups: those relating to structural disadvantages and those arising from the high-risk environment. If it is more difficult to implement an effective economic policy in Africa, if adjustment and reforms seem harder to achieve there than elsewhere, it is because, of initial handicaps and the fact that Africa is prone to more risk factors.
Among the handicaps which have dogged sub-Saharan Africa since independence, exerting a lasting influence on development conditions, two in particular have ensured that development needs outstrip the state's ability to respond: firstly, the level of education is particularly low, even when considered relative to per capita GNP and, secondly, population has been rising faster than anywhere else in the developing world.
Another factor is the relative lack of entrepreneurial spirit, which accounts for the weak response to the introduction of incentive-based policies following decades of interventionism.
Sub-Saharan Africa is also less predictable than any other region. Its climate, for example, brings great variations in agricultural output, which is still of major social and economic importance. Growth is also hampered by fluctuations in export earnings, in government aid payments and in external finance, which in turn lead to great variations in import levels and, except in the CFA states and a few other countries, to internal monetary instability.
There is a high degree of political, as well as economic instability, which adversely affects investment conditions and economic activity in general. Government's ability to do its job is limited by the lack of transparency in public affairs, the rentier mentality and the clientelism practised by ruling elites. Bad governance jeopardizes social development efforts, which demand policy continuity and long-term vision, and partly explains the delayed impact of structural adjustment, since it encourages investors to adopt a "wait-and-see" policy.
3. Political instability and the dysfunctional state
In recent years a number of ACP States have been characterized by political instability, weak government institutions incapable of implementing development policies, rising crime, organized violence and the spread of a new kind of armed conflict, with humanitarian, social, economic and environmental consequences.
The causes can be traced back, in part, to the colonial legacy of strong central planning and government intervention, and the creation of borders with no social rationale.
They can also be traced to the authoritarian leanings of the political regimes in power during the first two or three decades of independence, backed by Cold War alliances, and their frequent use of power for short-term private gain. Public services that do not work properly, swollen parastatal organizations, declining infrastructure, and problems raising revenue are the more obvious symptoms of the dysfunctional state.
Continuing economic recession, triggered in the early 1980s by falling commodity prices, rising petrol prices and international financial problems, has shrunk state revenues and real wages and altered the structure of incomes and the distribution of wealth; this has led to a rise in informal economic activity and contributed to a boom in fraud and trafficking, which is becoming linked to international networks.
As a result, over the last 15 years, three new factors have helped to weaken government structures and contributed to social breakdown:
There are nonetheless some encouraging signs: scheduled elections, increasing press freedom, and the setting-up of consultative bodies giving a voice to the private sector, grassroots communities, women's organizations, NGOs, etc. have created space for debate and paved the way to more transparent governance. The pressure for change is reflected in ACP societies' increasing demands for a style of participatory development that takes account of individual needs.
By no means every country shares the same political problems, but the problems are there, and they lend credence to a widespread unease which is not confined to the countries with the worst problems but which tends, at least in sub-Saharan Africa, to weaken confidence in the continent as a whole. It is that lack of confidence which is largely responsible for the record of slow, erratic investment, particularly foreign investment, in Africa, and which tends to undermine the legitimacy of development aid.
B. Anticipating risks and exploiting potential
1. Basic conditions for development and economic reform
The problems - in some cases severe - caused by political and social destabilization and the persistent difficulties besetting the implementation of economic growth policies, despite fifteen years of adjustment and assistance from the international financial institutions, are the two main dilemmas confronting sub-Saharan Africa today.
A number of countries lack the minimum criteria for peace and proper economic management. A mere 30% of the sub-Saharan population is living in countries which - only just - satisfy these criteria. This figure excludes countries in the throes of civil war and those which, through economic mismanagement, lack the basic prerequisites for development.
Six interdependent factors provide the yardstick by which future development prospects may be gauged:
(i) Peace and security, minimum conditions for development
Civil war has exacted a heavy toll in the ACP countries, with little prospect of improvement in the medium-term. Apart from their devastating direct effects in the countries concerned, these conflicts also have a "domino effect" in the sense that their repercussions, in particular the loss of confidence by economic operators, are felt throughout the region.
Despite this bleak outlook, there is still some cause for optimism: in countries with only a minimum of social stability, economic growth, although low in relation to their potential, has still generated an increase in income per capita.
(ii) Necessary economic and institutional reforms
The rate of investment in many countries is still too low. Of all the factors which influence investment decisions, the evaluation of "risk" (political instability and unpredictable economic and trade policies) is often the most decisive at this stage.
The implementation of economic reforms in an increasing number of countries since the end of the 1980s has helped reduce the risk factor. As in other regions of the world, these reforms - usually undertaken in the context of a macro-economic stabilization effort - go beyond the problem of short-term adjustment and embrace a whole series of economic policies and institutional changes. Apart from restoring a stable macro-economic framework, the reforms are intended, overall, to improve economic competitiveness through a more realistic exchange-rate policy, more efficient markets, trade liberalization and opening up to foreign investment. The reform of the public sector is based on a "back-to-basics" approach, with the emphasis on the provision of essential services and basic infrastructure.
Institutional reforms take longer and are more difficult to implement than liberalization policies; they concern the development and modernization of the financial system, tax reforms, public expenditure management, the improvement of the legal and regulatory framework, the reform of public enterprises and privatization.
These observations, which concern mainly sub-Saharan Africa, are also valid for the Caribbean countries, which are facing similar problems, albeit on a different scale. The reforms introduced in some of these countries in recent years to facilitate the development of the private sector and improve export potential still have a long way to go. Matters such as trade liberalization, the improvement of the regulatory framework, the development of the financial system, the functioning of the labour market and the need to create room for manoeuvre in social policy are thus set to dominate the economic policy agenda of the region for some time to come.
Tangible results are already discernible in certain areas. While it is difficult to identify the precise reasons for the improvement in economic growth, particularly in countries covered by the Special Programme of Assistance for Africa, it is clear that financial support from the international community has played a vital role in helping ensure the continuity of economic policies and reforms.
(iii) Democratization and economic liberalization
The dual process of economic and political transition (switch to a market economy and a pluralist system) brings with it both synergies and special problems: synergies in the sense that the reforms may give rise to broad public debate between Government and civil society, in particular representatives of the private sector, thereby providing the Government with a credible mandate; problems in so far as the implementation of stabilization policies in tandem with liberalization will be hampered temporarily by the emergence of democracy. This happens mainly when progress is slow and modest, delaying the benefits derived from improved supply conditions and prolonging the period of socio-economic austerity. In these circumstances, electoral support and a mandate for reform is more difficult to maintain, jeopardizing the continuity of economic policies.
(iv) Issues relating to the social transformation
While there may be a consensus on minimum economic reform, structural reforms - whose implications are more pervasive and distributive effects more subtle - are more controversial and meet with greater resistance. In sub-Saharan Africa, this resistance is provided by the dominant groups and is rooted in one of the cornerstones of the African ethos, i.e. the repudiation of the "each man for himself" mentality. However, the mechanisms of group solidarity have failed to ensure equitable distribution of the fruits of economic activity. The result is a predatory mentality and a very selective form of solidarity to the benefit of a privileged minority close to those in power. This form of social organization has led fund donors to keep their economic policy prescriptions within bounds as it is so difficult to predict the impact and viability of reforms that go beyond a basic common minimum.
Furthermore, the entire international community is faced with the problem of reconciling the major political commitments entered into at Rio, Cairo, Copenhagen and Beijing in support of sustainable development based on human needs with the reality of economic development in an increasingly competitive international environment.
(v) Reducing poverty
The recent improvement in economic growth has undoubtedly helped halt or check the spread of poverty in some countries, but has not reduced it. This would require, inter alia, more sustained economic growth. The World Bank estimates that, given the economic structures and population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa, an increase in GDP of 5% per annum would still not suffice to stabilize the numbers living below the poverty threshold; of those countries in the region with over a million inhabitants, only six have recorded sufficient growth rates in the last ten years to reverse the trend.
A great deal also needs to be done to improve the impact of growth on poverty: access to basic social services should be widened significantly and, in some countries, access to productive resources (education, training, land ownership, capital and credit, etc.) could be greatly improved: entire population groups are practically excluded from the formal sector of the economy. Women are particularly vulnerable and an improvement of their socio-economic situation would act as an effective lever in curbing poverty. While the informal sector is often very dynamic, it does not generally contribute much in terms of a lasting improvement in people's living conditions. Finally, any form of economic transition inevitably alters the relative positions of different sections of the population; the existing social systems, based for the most part on group solidarity but also on dependency relations, stand in the way of an effective response to these problems.
(vi) Integration into the world economy
The integration of the ACP countries into the world trade arena hinges on the success of domestic economic policies and on enhanced economic competitiveness and access to foreign markets.
While globalization has reduced trade barriers and the cost of engaging in international trade, access to international markets is becoming more complex and dependent on other non-tariff barrier trade-related considerations. In the market access equation, the level of tariffs plays an increasingly reduced role and other aspects such as competition policies, technical, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, subsidies, anti-dumping and countervailing policies, environmental and social regulations, intellectual property laws, investment codes, etc, have come increasingly to the fore as major determinants of market access.
Thus, although multilateral liberalization following the Uruguay Round agreement achieved considerable success, it remains true that many of the trade-related areas mentioned above are still insufficiently regulated by the WTO, allowing potentially uncompetitive behaviour by multinational corporations and trading nations, which may constitute effective barriers impairing access to international markets. The development of multilaterally agreed disciplines in those new trade-related areas as well as the consolidation of the credibility of the dispute settlement rules in enforcing the new agreements on TBT and other non-tariff barriers, constitutes unfinished business which will fill the agenda of the WTO for the years to come.
Multilateral liberalization following the Uruguay Round agreement has not slowed down the surge in interest in regionalism initiated in late 1980s. Trading nations, industrial and developing ones alike, seem to see an added value in going, at a more limited geographical scope, beyond the "acquis" of the Uruguay Round which is deemed not yet to have met the accrued demand for freer trade and more certainty and harmonization in the new trade-related areas.
North-South trading arrangements, beyond the normal static trade creation and diversion effects, increase the policy credibility of the participating LDCs and have the potential to lead to higher domestic and foreign investment, enhanced pro-competitive effects, improved access to technology and, last but not least, a degree of protection on policy developments in trade-related areas.
But multilateral liberalization and the growing trend towards regionalism alter the economic opportunities for the LDCs. On the one hand, those that benefit from non-reciprocal preferential treatment under the GSP or other preferential regimes like Lomé, see the value of their preferences being eroded. Furthermore, LDCs which may be excluded from regional blocs, are likely to face shifts in trade and investment to their detriment. On the other hand, multilateral and regional liberalization, in so far as the latter can be expected to spur the lowering of tariff barriers not only among the partners but also vis-à-vis the rest of world, should improve the market opportunities for the LDCs.
Developing countries lagging in growth and integration are confronted with the need to reverse those negative trends and must make difficult decisions regarding how much and how fast to liberalize and, in particular, choose the best strategy of integration into the world economy: Should they follow the multilateral way, or would unilateral liberalization be the best way to go? Should they alternatively engage in regionalism (South-South and/or North-South)? Should they follow some combination of the above options?
2. Promising results: a possible turning point?
The recent improvement in economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (3.5% to 4% for the region as a whole in 1995 and 7% for the 31 countries of the SPA) is undoubtedly due in part to short-term factors such as the increase in raw materials prices on the international markets. But it is also encouraging as it concerns a large number of countries and can also be attributed to better socio-economic management and the adoption of reforms which are starting to bear fruit, primarily in the form of a rise in the volume of exports.
The emergence of post-apartheid South Africa is without a doubt one of the most obvious auspicious developments. The development prospects of this country are contingent on its ability to reduce the causes of social tension and to improve the employment situation, but the potential for growth is considerable and the promising developments in terms of foreign investment and trade relations should reverberate throughout the entire region thanks to the economic knock-on effects and an improvement in the domestic situation of the other countries in the region.
The countries of the franc zone in West Africa are also helping to improve the continent's overall image. The 1994 devaluation had beneficial effects, particularly in countries which were also implementing an adjustment and reform policy. The process of regional economic integration in West Africa has also improved the economic outlook for the region and could prove to be a decisive turning point for economic development by boosting trade and improving competitiveness and also by anchoring stability-oriented macro-economic policies, thereby increasing their credibility and in turn helping to attract domestic and foreign investment.
In East Africa, too, a number of countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have seen their situation improve considerably over the past two years. These three countries have also recently embarked on a process of cooperation and regional integration which at present covers transport, communications and payments.
A number of Caribbean countries have also achieved significant progress in stabilizing their economies and were able to take advantage of the more favourable external environment in the 1980s to implement tax and monetary reforms and engage in trade liberalization as part of a process of cooperation and regional integration, which should eventually lead to their integration into the economy of the Western hemisphere (see Box 4).
The medium-term prospects of all of these countries still depend ultimately on the results of their economic policies. Structural handicaps, however, are still a major source of weakness. In the absence of the new investment required to enable these countries to diversify their exports, the terms of trade will continue to be at the mercy of fluctuating raw materials prices, which can thwart the reform process at any moment, jeopardizing any gains achieved through the adjustment programme.
Provided there are no major external crises and assuming that raw materials prices fall very gradually in the coming years against a background of social disintegration and varying degrees of political destabilization in many of the countries in the region, the World Bank's medium-term projections put annual growth for the whole of sub-Saharan Africa (including South Africa) at 3.8% per annum for the next ten years (1996-2005). This result, which is based on the assumption that the current reforms continue at a steady rate, would be a considerable improvement on the previous ten years (1.7% per annum between 1986 and 1995) and would engender a modest rise in income per capita (+0.9% per annum). It would not, however, be sufficient to bring about a significant reduction in poverty in many of these countries; this remains a major challenge for individual governments and all those involved in development cooperation.
The world economic outlook bodes well for the ACP countries on a number of counts: a sustained upswing in world trade (more than 6% per annum according to World Bank forecasts), an international trading system based on the conclusions of the Uruguay Round and the work of the WTO, major development opportunities in the service sector, in particular tourism, the emergence of new burgeoning markets in East Asia, Latin America and possibly also in Eastern Europe, will provide the ACP countries with an opportunity to diversify their economic and trade relations. The EU proposal on improving access for the poorest countries to industrialized countries' markets, approved at the recent G7 summit, should also enhance their economic prospects.
C. Implications for the future partnership
Development conditions have changed radically in terms of socio-political developments within the ACP countries themselves and changes in the international political and economic arena.
The analysis of the constraints and opportunities facing the ACP countries provides an important yardstick for planning future cooperation, based on a better targeted and more efficient approach in support of these countries' adjustment and development policies. The following factors in particular should be taken into account:
The analyses expounded in the first part of this green paper show that future cooperation between the EU and the ACP countries must be seen against a radically changed international backdrop. Also, the European Union is set to undergo far-reaching changes and the various ACP countries will move in widely divergent socio-economic and political directions. In the face of a loss of legitimacy for the very principle of development aid, compounded by budget constraints and a European social crisis, the lessons learned from past successes and failures should help improve the effectiveness and impact of future cooperation.
The main task facing the EU counties is to avoid the temptation to go it alone and develop basic solidarity. To that end, it should endeavour "do better" next time and to improve the prospects for successful cooperation with the ACP countries. A number of recent Community initiatives reflect this desire and an effort should be made to identify which aspects of a multi-faceted policy should be retained and which discarded. The Union has a number of options to consider as it takes its decisions on the long-term development of cooperation policy.
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