World Trade Growth Slower In 1998 After Unusually Strong Growth In 1997

World Trade Organization (WTO)
16 April 1999

• Trade contraction in Asia has been the biggest factor in the global trade slowdown: But there has been a marked slowdown in global export expansion throughout 1998, reflected in the performance of all major regions.

• Trade performance measured in volume terms differed widely among regions in 1998, particularly on the import side: Imports into Asia fell by 8.5 per cent, stagnated or fell slightly in Africa and the Middle East, and expanded by 7.5 per cent in Western Europe and by some 10 per cent in North America, Latin America and the transition economies. Export volume growth was strongest in the transition economies and Latin America, at 10 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively, and increased marginally in Asia (1 per cent). Western Europe's export growth was slightly above the global average, at 4.5 per cent, and that of North America was below the average, at 3 per cent.

(Billion dollars and percentage)

	Value			Annual change
	1996	1997	1998	1996	1997	1998
Merchandise	5150	5325	5225	4.5	3.5	-2.0
Commercial services	1275	1320	1290	6.7	3.5	-2.0

II. World trade developments by country and region

In its seventh year of expansion, the United States economy experienced an acceleration in private consumption and continued double-digit investment growth. GDP growth was almost 4 per cent, unchanged from 1997. The booming U.S. economy stimulated intra-NAFTA trade, and sustained exports and output in other regions. North America's merchandise import volume rose by 10.5 per cent in 1998, which was the strongest growth of all regions (Table 2).

Table 2
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade by selected region, 1990-98

(Annual percentage change)

Exports					Imports
Average 1990-95	1996	1997	1998		Average 1990-95	1996	1997	1998
6.0	5.5	10.5	3.5	World	6.5	6.0	9.5	4.0
7.0	6.0	11.0	3.0	North Americaa	7.0	5.5	13.0	10.5
8.0	11.0	11.0	6.5	Latin America	12.0	8.5	22.0	9.5
5.5	5.5	9.5	4.5	Western Europe	4.5	5.5	7.5	7.5
5.5	5.5	9.5	5.0	European Union (15)	4.5	5.0	7.0	7.5
5.0	6.5	12.5	10.0	Transition economies	2.5	16.0	17.0	10.0
7.5	5.0	13.0	1.0	Asia	10.5	6.0	6.0	-8.5
1.5	1.0	12.0	-1.5	Japan	6.5	5.5	1.5	-5.5
11.5	7.5	11.5	2.0	Six East Asian tradersb	12.0	4.5	6.5	-16.0

aCanada and the United States.

^bChinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China; Malaysia; the Republic of Korea; Singapore and Thailand.

Note: Separate volume data are not available for Africa and the Middle East, although estimates for these regions have been made in order to calculate the world total.

In value terms, North America's merchandise exports decreased slightly in 1998, as volume growth decelerated and prices declined. North America's merchandise imports, however, increased by 4.5 per cent in value terms, leading to a widening of the region's merchandise trade deficit to $253 billion (Table 3). The evolution in North America's commercial services trade mirrored that of merchandise trade, with exports increasing only very slightly and imports rising by 4.5 per cent, reducing further the region's surplus in services trade.

Latin America's GDP and trade growth slowed sharply in 1998 from the exceptionally high levels recorded in 1997. Falling commodity prices, a slowdown in private capital inflows in the second half of 1998 and weaker export markets within the region and in Asia contributed to this development. Marked differences in economic performance occurred for the two largest economies in the region, with trade and output growth slowing strongly in Brazil, while Mexico's trade and output performance remained well above the regional average. Better access to the rapidly expanding United States market and a higher share of manufactures in its merchandise exports are among the factors which explain why Mexico's trade and output developments were, for the fourth year in a row, superior to those of the other Latin American economies.

For Latin America as a whole, the growth in the volume of merchandise imports continued to exceed that of merchandise exports by a large margin, and the region's trade expansion – both imports and exports – remained stronger than the global average. Latin America's merchandise export value, on the other hand, decreased by 2 per cent in 1998, as the expansion of Mexico's exports was more than offset by the decline in exports of all other Latin American countries combined. In particular, Ecuador and Venezuela, the two major oil exporting countries in Latin America, experienced the strongest setback, with decreases in excess of 20 per cent. Latin America's outstandingly strong import growth performance throughout the 1990-97 period became less dynamic last year, although at 5 per cent, this region, together with Western Europe, recorded the highest import growth rate of any region. Mexico's import growth rate of 14 per cent contrasted with the relative stagnation of imports in other Latin American countries. As Mexico has enjoyed an above average rate of growth in trade for a number of years, its share of total trade in the region has risen considerably, accounting for 40 per cent in 1998. Latin America's exports and imports of commercial services are estimated to have expanded by 4 to 5 per cent in 1998.

Table 3
Growth in the value of world merchandise trade by region, 1990-98

(Billion dollars and percentage)

Exports (f.o.b.)						Imports (c.i.f.)
Value	Annual percentage change					Value	Annual percentage change
1998	1990-95	1996	1997	1998		1998	1990-95	1996	1997	1998
5225	7.5	4.5	3.5	-2.0	World	5410	7.5	5.0	3.0	-1.0
898	8.5	6.5	9.5	-1.0	North America	1151	8.0	6.0	10.5	4.5
274	9.0	12.5	10.0	-2.0	Latin America	339	14.5	9.5	19.0	5.0
118	14.0	20.5	15.0	6.5	Mexico	129	12.5	25.5	23.5	14.0
157	7.0	8.0	7.0	-7.0	Other Latin America	211	15.5	2.5	16.5	0.5
2338	6.0	3.5	-0.5	2.5	Western Europe	2359	5.5	3.5	-1.5	5.0
2171	6.5	3.5	-0.5	3.0	European Union (15)	2163	5.5	3.0	-2.0	5.5
178	7.0	6.5	5.0	-1.0	Transition economies	207	5.0	17.0	9.5	3.0
99	7.5	6.0	8.0	9.0	Central/Eastern Europe	133	11.5	17.0	7.0	11.5
106	0.5	16.5	2.0	-16.0	Africa	129	5.5	-1.0	6.0	-1.5
26	3.5	5.5	6.0	-15.0	South Africa	29	10.5	-1.5	9.5	-11.0
138	1.5	17.0	4.0	-21.0	Middle East	139	5.5	7.0	6.5	-6.0
1294	12.0	0.5	5.5	-6.0	Asia	1090	12.0	4.5	0.5	-17.5
388	9.0	-7.5	2.5	-8.0	Japan	281	7.5	4.0	-3.0	-17.0
184	19.0	1.5	21.0	0.5	China	140	20.0	5.0	2.5	-1.5
504	14.0	3.0	2.5	-7.5	Six East Asian tradersa	438	15.0	3.0	0.5	-25.0

aChinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China; Malaysia; the Republic of Korea; Singapore and Thailand.

Stronger demand growth in Western Europe contrasted with a weaker global economy in 1998, leading to an import expansion which, for the first time since 1992, exceeded the region's export growth rate. Western Europe was the only major region which recorded an increase in the dollar value of its exports. Imports in value terms increased by 5 per cent, very close to the expansion recorded by both North America and Latin America. The share of Western Europe in world merchandise trade recovered to 44 per cent following a marked decrease between 1990 and 1997. Commercial services imports expanded by 4 per cent in 1998, and commercial services exports by 3 per cent.

The interaction between trade and output in the transition economies in recent years has been unique among the major regions. Sluggish overall economic activity, including a decline in regional output in recent years, has been accompanied by export and import growth rates above the global average. Merchandise imports have expanded significantly faster than world trade in both real and nominal dollar values. Merchandise export growth, at 10 per cent in volume terms, was the highest among all regions. Due to the sharp decline in the dollar export prices, however, the dollar export value of the region decreased slightly.

Several factors have contributed to this situation, where trade growth has been above the world average, while output growth has been lower than the world average. First, inflows of private capital have been strong, in particular foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment. Second, FDI has been associated with a strong increase in capital goods imports, which over recent years has supported the expansion of exports. Third, a number of East European countries advanced considerably with their integration into the EU market, in particular Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The strong trade performance of these countries masked a rather mixed picture in other transition economies.

The commercial services trade of the transition economies has been far less dynamic than merchandise trade in the last two years, with exports decreasing slightly and imports rising moderately. The Russian Federation, the region's largest commercial services trader, reported a decline in exports and imports of about 7 per cent in 1998. For Central and Eastern Europe, an increase of 4 per cent was recorded last year.

Africa and the Middle East have suffered the brunt of the decline in primary commodity prices in 1998. Despite a moderate recovery in Africa's GDP - linked to the recovery of agricultural output - Africa's trade remained sluggish. Export values in the region decreased by 16 per cent in 1998. Oil-exporting African countries recorded a decrease in exports exceeding one-quarter. Import values declined only slightly in 1998, but higher trade deficits raise the question whether the 1998 level of import demand can be sustained in 1999. Available data on commercial services also indicate decreases in the value of both exports and imports. As was observed for merchandise trade, exports of services decreased faster than imports.

Being the region with the highest share of fuels in its merchandise exports, the Middle East recorded the strongest contraction in export value of all regions. Exports for the region as a whole shrank by one-fifth. The decline in the dollar export value was, however, associated with an increase in the export volume. The increase in the supply of oil from the region in a period of weak demand has contributed to a steep erosion of oil prices. The region's merchandise imports adjusted to some degree to lower export revenues, falling by 6 per cent in 1998 (Table 4).

Asia recorded the strongest import contraction in volume and value terms of all regions. Import volume decreased by about 8.5 per cent under the impact of Japan's import contraction of 5.5 per cent, and that of the Asia (5) of more than 20 per cent. It is estimated that within Asia only a few countries recorded an increase in import volumes (e.g. Australia, China and India). As intra-Asian trade accounts for about one half of Asia's merchandise exports, the contraction of the area's imports also held down export growth. Asia's export volume rose marginally as the volume decrease for Japan, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong, China were more than offset by the strong growth of exports of the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. China's exports are also estimated to have expanded moderately in volume terms.

Table 4
Merchandise exports of emerging markets by product category, 1997

(Percentage shares)

	Fuels	Metals and minerals	Agricultural products	Manufactures	Total
Middle East	73	2	4	21	100
Africa	44	8	19	29	100
Latin Americaa	19	11	36	34	100
Emerging Asiab	5	2	10	83	100
World	9	2	11	78	100

^aExcluding Mexico.

^bAsia, excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

The dollar value of Asia's imports registered an unprecedented decline of 17.5 per cent. In 1998 Asia (5) imports contracted by one-third, and those of Japan by 17 per cent (Appendix Charts 1 and 2). Only certain South Asian countries recorded a slight increase in their imports (e.g. India and Sri Lanka). The trade performance of most Asian countries improved in the last quarter of 1998, partly due to the strengthening of the yen and other Asian currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.

The sharp import contraction in the Asia (5) countries (almost one-third in value terms) is largely explained by the turnaround in private capital flows and the associated drop in domestic investment and consumption levels. The decrease in exports of the Asia (5) countries, however, was stronger than expected even if one takes into account the high share of intra-regional trade in total trade. Despite the strong currency devaluations which boosted the price competitiveness of enterprises in the Asia (5) countries, the combined exports of these countries did not increase their market shares in the major developed markets. In fact, China's exports to the United States, Japan and major European markets expanded faster than those of the Asia (5) countries in 1998.

One of the striking features of world trade in 1998 was the exceptionally large variation in the growth rates among countries measured in value terms. Consequently, the ranking of the leading traders changed dramatically for both merchandise and commercial services trade (see Appendix Tables 1, 2 and 3). The reversal of capital flows in 1997-1998 forced many East Asian economies to cut back sharply on their imports in 1998. Import declines ranged from 26 to 35 per cent (e.g. the Republic of Korea 35 per cent, Thailand 33 per cent, Indonesia 34 per cent and Malaysia 26 per cent). Retained imports of Hong Kong, China and Singapore also contracted in this range, despite their current account surplus position and stronger internal demand.

Contractionary conditions in Japan and the fall in oil prices led to a fall of 17 per cent in the dollar value of imports, to a level below that of Germany, the United Kingdom and France. In general, Canada, Mexico and many West European countries improved their position among the leading importers (and exporters), while those of Asian countries and Russia deteriorated.

Fuel exporters generally recorded the strongest decline in merchandise export value among all countries. For a number of them, the dollar value of export earnings decreased by one-quarter to more than one-third in 1998 (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela). Oil exporters and the East Asian traders lost, while Mexico and most West European countries gained in market share.

Last year, China's merchandise exports exceeded those of Hong Kong, China for the first time. The contraction of Russia's trade under the impact of the fall in fuel prices and the outbreak of the financial crisis have lowered Russia's (extra-CIS) exports to below those of Ireland and its imports to less than those of Poland.

Despite the decrease in the nominal value of world trade, a few countries continued to expand their exports by more than 15 per cent. This group comprises Ireland, the Philippines, Hungary and Costa Rica. Throughout the 1990-98 period these countries expanded their exports two times faster than the global average.

The United States consolidated its position as the world leading trader in 1998, accounting for nearly one-sixth of merchandise imports and services exports and one-eighth of merchandise exports and services imports.

East Asian countries' exports of commercial services decreased in 1998 significantly faster than their merchandise exports. One explanation for this development might be that intra-Asian trade is more important for services than for merchandise exports and thereby more affected by the contraction of Asian demand. However, the lack of statistical information on the destination of services exports precludes confirmation of this possibility.

Although price variations in commercial services are estimated to be far smaller than those for merchandise trade in 1998, the variations in the performance of individual services traders were at least as large as those for merchandise traders. Among the leading commercial services exporters, the strongest declines were recorded by Singapore and Malaysia, while India and Spain recorded increases in excess of 10 per cent. The Asia (5) countries recorded contractions in their services imports ranging from about 20 per cent to more than 30 per cent. India, Spain and Ireland recorded import increases between 10 and 20 per cent. Given the provisional nature of the above data and the past experience of substantial revisions even for year-old data, caution is called for in interpreting current services statistics.

III. Repercussions of the fall in commodity prices

In 1998, an increase in the supply of many primary commodities coincided with a slowdown in economic activity, leading to a sharp drop in commodity prices. Prices of non-fuel commodities and crude oil fell by 15 per cent and more than 30 per cent, respectively. Although prices of manufactures decreased as well, prices of primary commodities decreased much faster (for the second year in a row).

As the oil price decline accelerated during the course of the year, the year-over-year change in December 1998 exceeded 40 per cent. For non-fuel primary commodities, the period of weaker prices started earlier and moderated in the second half, with the result that the decline at the end of the year (about 10 per cent) was smaller than the annual average for 1998 (Chart 2). Oil exporters have yet to feel the full impact of lower spot oil prices on their export earnings. Investment and government expenditure is likely to be curtailed in 1999. Import levels will contract further, as such a steep price decline cannot be fully absorbed by a reduction in foreign exchange reserves.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As noted earlier, the steep fall in fuel prices affects in particular the export earnings of the Middle East and Africa. Besides the 11 member countries of OPEC, in about another eight countries fuel exports account for more than one half of export earnings. It is important to note that in the first quarter of 1999, the spot oil price recovered from its low level in December 1998 following the announcement of production cuts by oil producers. It remains to be seen whether this upward trend will continue or the present price gains will prove sustainable. While these trends will lead to downward adjustments in the imports of oil-exporting countries in 1999, related income gains in oil-importing countries will at least partially offset this contractionary tendency in world trade.

Exporters of agricultural products are a larger group than oil exporters. The decline in agricultural prices therefore affected a larger number of countries, but generally less dramatically than the oil exporters. This is for two reasons. First, the decline in agricultural product prices was less steep than for oil. Second, the exporters of agricultural products generally depend less on a single commodity than do the fuel exporters (Appendix Table 4).

IV. Global trade outlook for 1999

The slowdown of world trade and output growth had not been reversed by the end of 1998. While Japan's GDP continued to shrink in the fourth quarter of 1998 and many West European countries recorded a weakening in their economic performance, the U.S. economy accelerated.

Significantly slower GDP growth in Brazil in 1998 and contraction in Russia will negatively affect the growth of neighbouring economies with whom they have extensive trade ties. The sharp contraction of output and trade in the Asia (5) countries appears to have bottomed out, and a moderate recovery is the most likely scenario for 1999. As there is generally a time-lag between reduced export earnings and lower import levels, the steep fall of oil and commodity prices will have its full impact on investment and consumption in the commodity exporting countries only in 1999. The extent of this impact may be mitigated in the case of oil prices, however, should the recent increases in prices prove sustainable.

Global output growth may weaken slightly in 1999. Moderately weaker growth in the United States and Western Europe may not be offset by a lower rate of contraction in Japan. Given the size of the Russian and Brazilian economies in regional output, production levels in the transition economies and Latin America is likely at best remain unchanged from the preceding year.

On the basis of this sluggish output growth, overall trade expansion may not differ much in 1999 from the 3.5 per cent observed in 1998. Even this moderate expansion, however, is associated with major downside risks and would imply an acceleration of trade growth in the course of 1999. If slower output growth in the United States or Western Europe turns out to be more pronounced than presently expected, and if the recovery in East Asia (including Japan) is more delayed than projected by most observers, world trade expansion could be below 3.5 per cent. The United States is expected to record the highest growth rate among the industrial countries in 1999, but on the condition that U.S. consumers do not rapidly correct their historically low savings rate, and that any stock market correction will not have a major impact on investor and consumer confidence.

Appendix Table 1
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 1998

(Billion dollars and percentage)

Rank	EXPORTERS	Value (f.o.b.)	Share	Change	Rank	IMPORTERS	Value (c.i.f)	Share	Change
1	United States	683.0	12.7	-1	1	United States	944.6	17.0	5
2	Germany	539.7	10.0	5	2	Germany	466.6	8.4	5
3	Japan	388.0	7.2	-8	3	United Kingdom	316.1	5.7	3
4	France	307.0	5.7	6	4	France	287.2	5.2	7
5	United Kingdom	272.7	5.1	-3	5	Japan	280.5	5.0	-17
6	Italy	240.9	4.5	1	6	Italy	214.0	3.8	3
7	Canada	214.3	4.0	-1	7	Canada	205.0	3.7	2
8	Netherlands	198.2	3.7	2	8	Hong Kong, China	188.7	3.4	-12
9	China	183.8	3.4	1		retained importsa	38.9	0.7	-26
10	Hong Kong, China	174.1	3.2	-7	9	Netherlands	184.1	3.3	4
	domestic exports	24.3	0.5	-11	10	Belgium-Luxembourg	158.8	2.9	2
11	Belgium-Luxembourg	171.7	3.2	2	11	China	140.2	2.5	-2
12	Korea, Rep. of	133.2	2.5	-2	12	Spain	132.8	2.4	8
13	Mexico	117.5	2.2	6	13	Mexico	128.9	2.3	14
14	Chinese Taipei	109.9	2.0	-9	14	Chinese Taipei	104.2	1.9	-9
15	Singapore	109.8	2.0	-12	15	Singapore	101.5	1.6	-23
	domestic exports	63.3	1.2	-13		retained importsa	54.9	1.8	-31
16	Spain	109.0	2.0	5	16	Korea, Rep. of	93.3	1.7	-35
17	Sweden	84.5	1.6	2	17	Switzerland	80.0	1.4	5
18	Switzerland	78.7	1.5	3	18	Austria	68.3	1.2	5
19	Malaysia	73.3	1.4	-7	19	Sweden	67.6	1.2	3
20	Ireland	63.3	1.2	19	20	Australia	64.7	1.2	-2
21	Austria	61.7	1.1	5	21	Brazil	61.0	1.1	-6
22	Russian Fed.b	56.2	1.0	-16	22	Malaysia	58.5	1.1	-26
23	Australia	55.9	1.0	-11	23	Poland	48.0	0.9	13
24	Thailand	53.6	1.0	-7	24	Turkey	46.4	0.8	-4
25	Brazil	51.0	0.9	-3	25	Denmark	45.8	0.8	3
26	Indonesia	48.8	0.9	-9	26	Russian Fed.b	44.7	0.8	-18
27	Denmark	47.0	0.9	-4	27	Ireland	43.7	0.8	11
28	Finland	42.4	0.8	4	28	India	42.9	0.8	4
29	Norway	39.6	0.7	-18	29	Thailand	41.8	0.8	-33
30	Saudi Arabia	38.8	0.7	-35	30	Norway	36.2	0.7	1
	Total of abovec	4748.0	88.3	-1		Total of abovec	4696.0	84.4	-2
	Worldc	5375.0	100.0	-2		Worldc	5560.0	100.0	-1

^aRetained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.

^bData exclude trade with the Baltic States and the CIS. Including trade with these States would lift Russian exports and imports to $73.9 billion and $59.5 billion, respectively.

^cIncludes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

Appendix Table 2
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade (excluding European Union intra-trade), 1998

(Billion dollars and percentage)

Rank	EXPORTERS	Value (f.o.b.)	Share	Change	Rank	IMPORTERS	Value (c.i.f)	Share	Change
1	European Union (15)	813.8	20.3	0	1	United States	944.6	22.5	5
2	United States	683.0	17.0	-1	2	European Union (15)	801.4	19.1	6
3	Japan	388.0	9.7	-8	3	Japan	280.5	6.7	-17
4	Canada	214.3	5.3	-1	4	Canada	205.0	4.9	2
5	China	183.8	4.6	1	5	Hong Kong, China	188.7	4.5	-12
6	Hong Kong, China	174.1	4.3	-7		retained importsa	38.9	0.9	-26
	domestic exports	24.3	0.6	-11	6	China	140.2	3.3	-2
7	Korea, Rep. of	133.2	3.3	-2	7	Mexico	128.9	3.1	14
8	Mexico	117.5	2.9	6	8	Chinese Taipei	104.2	2.5	-9
9	Chinese Taipei	109.9	2.7	-9	9	Singapore	101.5	2.4	-23
10	Singapore	109.8	2.7	-12		retained importsa	54.9	1.3	-31
	domestic exports	63.3	1.6	-13	10	Korea, Rep. of	93.3	2.2	-35
11	Switzerland	78.7	2.0	3	11	Switzerland	80.0	1.9	5
12	Malaysia	73.3	1.8	-7	12	Australia	64.7	1.5	-2
13	Russian Fed.b	56.2	1.4	-16	13	Brazil	61.0	1.5	-6
14	Australia	55.9	1.4	-11	14	Malaysia	58.5	1.4	-26
15	Thailand	53.6	1.3	-7	15	Poland	48.0	1.1	13
16	Brazil	51.0	1.3	-3	16	Turkey	46.4	1.1	-4
17	Indonesia	48.8	1.2	-9	17	Russian Fed.b	44.7	1.1	-18
18	Norway	39.6	1.0	-18	18	India	42.9	1.0	4
19	Saudi Arabia	38.8	1.0	-35	19	Thailand	41.8	1.0	-33
20	India	33.2	0.8	-3	20	Norway	36.2	0.9	1
21	Philippines	29.3	0.7	17	21	Philippines	32.0	0.8	-17
22	Czech Rep.	26.4	0.7	16	22	Argentina	31.4	0.7	3
23	South Africa	26.3	0.7	-15	23	South Africa	29.3	0.7	-11
24	Poland	26.3	0.7	2	24	Israel	29.1	0.7	-5
25	Turkey	26.1	0.7	0	25	Czech Rep.c	28.8	0.7	6
26	Argentina	25.2	0.6	-1	26	Indonesia	27.4	0.7	-34
27	United Arab Emirates	24.2	0.6	-16	27	United Arab Emirates	27.0	0.6	-10
28	Israel	23.3	0.6	3	28	Hungary	25.8	0.6	22
29	Hungary	22.9	0.6	20	29	Saudi Arabia	23.7	0.6	-13
30	Venezuela	17.2	0.4	-25	30	Chile	18.8	0.4	-4
	Total of aboved	3704.0	92.2	-4		Total of aboved	3786.0	90.1	-4
	Worldd	4018.0	100.0	-4		Worldd	4200.0	100.0	-3

aRetained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.

bData exclude trade with the Baltic States and the CIS. Including trade with these States would lift Russian exports and imports to $73.9 billion

and $59.5 billion, respectively.

cImports are valued f.o.b.

dIncludes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

Appendix Table 3
Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 1998

(Billion dollars and percentage)

Rank	EXPORTERS	Value	Share	Change	Rank	IMPORTERS	Value	Share	Change
1	United States	233.6	18.1	1	1	United States	161.5	12.5	6
2	United Kingdom	99.5	7.7	8	2	Germany	121.8	9.4	3
3	France	78.6	6.1	-2	3	Japan	109.5	8.5	-10
4	Germany	75.7	5.9	1	4	United Kingdom	76.1	5.9	7
5	Italy	70.1	5.4	-2	5	Italy	69.3	5.4	-1
6	Japan	60.8	4.7	-11	6	France	62.8	4.9	1
7	Netherlands	48.3	3.7	-1	7	Netherlands	44.8	3.5	2
8	Spain	48.0	3.7	10	8	Canada	34.8	2.7	-3
9	Belgium-Luxembourg	34.7	2.7	4	9	Belgium-Luxembourg	33.6	2.6	6
10	Hong Kong, China	34.2	2.6	-11	10	Austria	28.7	2.2	1
11	Austria	31.0	2.4	6	11	China	28.6	2.2	-5
12	Canada	28.8	2.2	-2	12	Spain	27.3	2.1	12
13	Switzerland	26.3	2.0	3	13	Chinese Taipei	23.4	1.8	-3
14	Korea, Rep of	23.6	1.8	-7	14	Korea, Rep of	23.0	1.8	-21
15	China	23.0	1.8	-6	15	Hong Kong, China	22.7	1.8	-2
16	Turkey	22.4	1.7	17	16	Sweden	20.6	1.6	6
17	Singapore	18.2	1.4	-40	17	Brazil	18.9	1.5	7
18	Sweden	17.4	1.4	-1	18	Ireland	18.0	1.4	20
19	Chinese Taipei	16.6	1.3	-2	19	Singapore	18.0	1.4	-7
20	Australia	15.8	1.2	-14	20	Russian Fed.	17.8	1.4	-7
21	Denmark	15.7	1.2	4	21	Australia	16.7	1.3	-9
22	Norway	13.9	1.1	-2	22	Switzerland	15.0	1.2	6
23	Russian Fed.	12.9	1.0	-7	23	Denmark	14.9	1.2	-1
24	Thailand	12.8	1.0	-18	24	Norway	14.8	1.1	2
25	Mexico	11.9	0.9	6	25	Saudi Arabia	13.9	1.1	0
26	Malaysia	10.9	0.8	-27	26	India	13.7	1.1	12
27	India	10.5	0.8	22	27	Mexico	12.5	1.0	6
28	Greece	9.9	0.8	8	28	Thailand	12.2	0.9	-29
29	Poland	8.9	0.7	-1	29	Indonesia	11.9	0.9	-26
30	Israel	8.7	0.7	4	30	Malaysia	11.9	0.9	-32
	Total of above	1123	87.0	-1		Total of above	1100	85.2	-1
	World	1290	100.0	-2		World	1290	100.0	-1

Note: Secretariat estimates based on incomplete or preliminary data.

Appendix Table 4
Traders with a high share of agricultural products in their merchandise exports, 1990 and 1997

(Percentages)

	1990	1997
Malawi	…	92
Belize	91	90
Paraguay	90	82
Mozambique	…	78
Iceland	80	75
Madagascar	70	72
Costa Rica	64	67
Nicaragua	89	63
Uruguay	61	61
New Zealand	63	61
Ecuador	46	61
El Salvador	41	56
Argentina	61	53
Zimbabwe	44	51
Honduras	86	43
Bolivia	…	40
Cameroon	36	37
Chile	33	37
Colombia	37	37
Brazil	31	35
Morocco	29	35
Peru	25	34
Mauritius	33	31
Australia	30	30

Source: WTO, Annual Report 1998.